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By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on December 31st, 1998
We would like to convey our warmest wishes for a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year.
As is our custom, we are writing to share our views on 1999 from the point of view of global investment markets. We look at the investment markets as an amalgam of trends from the current and expected social, political, and economic environment in the world. Based on our research, we are reasonably optimistic about the environment for 1999. We see opportunities and we see problems. Let us discuss both of them and why we believe at this time next year we will . . .
Continue Reading: December 31, 1998
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on October 1st, 1998
To say the third quarter of 1998 has been eventful, would be a substantial understatement.
Asia has continued to slow, with major cracks in the banking systems of Japan and several Southeast Asian nations exacerbating the situation. Russia has imploded and officials there have made a number of serious blunders which may guarantee against a recovery of their economy anytime soon. Latin America has joined in the decline as bankers feared the problems in Asia and Eastern Europe were contagious. This caused them to call in loans in Latin America. While Latin America was not in default, this lack . . .
Continue Reading: October 1, 1998
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on July 2nd, 1998
We have been noticing several trends that point to the ongoing change and evolution in the world markets in 1998. These trends are greatly shaping the investment environment for 1998 and future years.
(1) The bigger, the better. The U.S. market has been excellent for big cap stocks, average to poor for mid sized companies and terrible for small companies. For example, during the U.S. market correction from April 13 to mid June, the Dow Jones Average fell less than 10% while 60% of all stocks listed on NASDAQ fell by over 20%. This decline by the small capitalization . . .
Continue Reading: July 2, 1998
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on April 8th, 1998
The first quarter was a good one for the U.S. and European markets and a volatile one for the Asian markets. The U.S. provided decent returns and we continue to see opportunity in this country in coming months.
In the U.S., we hold core positions in high quality growth companies like Fannie Mae in finance; Cendant, Microsoft, and Intel in technology; Pfizer and Schering Plough in pharmaceuticals; New York Times, Ames Department Stores, Pepsico and Tiffany & Co. in consumer and retail.
European markets have been the world’s strongest so far in 1998. We will continue to see economic . . .
Continue Reading: April 8, 1998
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