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By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on September 30th, 1999
ECONOMICS The global economy is improving, led by Asia. Japan is coming out of its long recessionary period and has had good economic growth for the last two quarters. Developing Asia is also growing nicely, recovering from 1998’s problems in Southeast Asia. China continues to do well and those who have been predicting a devaluation of the Chinese currency are again being proven wrong. North American and European economic growth is good and corporate profits world-wide are expanding.
MARKETS All of the above economic trends and the rise in corporate profits would be salutary for U.S. and foreign stocks . . .
Continue Reading: September 30, 1999
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on July 6th, 1999
Hi, we hope our quarterly economic review finds you enjoying the summer season. As is our custom, we will be discussing our views on the economy, interest rates, the stock market, and the trends and themes we have identified as creating opportunities for investment. We also want to take this opportunity to give you some insight into our process of researching investment ideas.
As we write this letter, we remain confident that the U.S. economy and many stocks will continue to be robust despite modestly higher interest rates. We are also seeing positive developments in Asia. In Japan, after . . .
Continue Reading: July 6, 1999
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on April 6th, 1999
The first quarter has passed and we have seen 2 major developments.
(1) Narrowing of the U.S. market: share price increases in the U.S. market for a few large, seasoned and favored companies coinciding with actual price declines in most U.S. stocks. Although the S&P 500 was up slightly in the quarter, 63% of all New York Stock Exchange stocks, 47% of S&P 500 stocks, 55% of NASDAQ stocks declined in the first quarter according to Merrill Lynch.
(2) Japan has begun making good decisions to re liquidify their ailing economy. They have guaranteed bank loans and liquidated some . . .
Continue Reading: April 6, 1999
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