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By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on October 4th, 2000
AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
As we all know the stock market is famous for fluctuating between periods of undervaluation and overvaluation. When we have a period when a part or sector of the market becomes extremely overvalued and approaches mania, it can be very interesting for investors as it creates opportunities in the undervalued broad market outside of the expensive sectors. Some examples of these periods and the opportunities they create are discussed below.
1968. The entire market became euphoric and overvalued as the economy grew very rapidly on the back of double stimulus of the Vietnam war spending and . . .
Continue Reading: October 4, 2000
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on July 5th, 2000
I hope this memo finds you well, happy and content during the fullness of the summer season. In general, our views are sanguine. We remain invested in the high technology, pharmaceutical and energy areas. We continue to hold substantial cash which we intend to put to work during periods of market decline.
While we expect progress in the second half of 2000, we see crosscurrents which will produce progress but not smooth sailing. Some areas where we see these crosscurrents are:
Area I – Inflation
Potential problem – Commodity prices have bottomed and are turning up, labor is in . . .
Continue Reading: July 5, 2000
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on April 4th, 2000
OVERVIEW
Over the past few weeks I have spoken to many of you and I have been asked on several occasions why we have done so well this year. I would like to take this opportunity to summarize our approach in the first quarter and contrast it to economic and market events.
In order to invest successfully, it is important to know who the dominant investor group consists of, and how they think. In the 1960’s the dominant investor group was wealthy individuals. Their money was, and is, primarily managed by bank trust departments and boutique firms like Guild . . .
Continue Reading: April 4, 2000
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on March 1st, 2000
1999 has ended and the new millennium awaits us. As we all know 1999 was a very interesting year. The U.S. economy continued its big growth completing eight years of economic expansion. Europe began to grow faster. Asia came out of its decline to register growth in the second half of 1999. Y2K fears were unable to hobble economic growth and most observers believe that the U.S. and most of Europe have been Y2K compliant for some time. Thus far in 2000, Y2K problems have been very small and easily corrected. Even the optimists have been surprised by how . . .
Continue Reading: January 3, 2000
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