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By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on September 26th, 2001
Please let us begin by saying that the prayers and sympathies of all of us here go out to those impacted by the terrible tragedy of September 11, 2001.
As individuals and as a nation we suffered a grievous loss. Now is the time for mourning and healing, but in our view, this time will eventually give way to a new and better era for the U.S. and for the world.
THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT I am happy to report that our performance for your account has been much better than the market. For the quarter through yesterday the average . . .
Continue Reading: September 26, 2001
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on July 3rd, 2001
Here we are July 3 and I am writing to share our opinions and outlook for the coming weeks.
For the first six months of 2001, we have seen the market transitioning from a declining market in the first quarter to a bottoming market in the second quarter. The S&P 500 is down 7.3% and the Nasdaq Composite is down 12.6% on the year.
THE ECONOMY
Economic activity is still slowing worldwide as the technology bubble of 1998-1999 and early 2000 is being deflated. Over-ordering for Y2K and double ordering by customers who were expecting shortages have led to . . .
Continue Reading: July 3, 2001
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on April 3rd, 2001
It’s April 3rd and the market has just turned in a terrible quarter. We were fortunate to have avoided the great majority of the damage due to our high cash position. During the quarter, the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 were down 25.5% and 12.1% respectively. While remaining sensitive to the suffering others have experienced, we are pleased to have held so much U.S. government debt earning interest, and to have been mostly on the sidelines during this slide.
The demoralization and fear that often accompany market bottoms are beginning to be seen not only in the U.S. . . .
Continue Reading: April 3, 2001
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on January 1st, 2001
OVERVIEW
2000 was a very constructive year. We are grateful that some of the excesses of the last few years were corrected. Let us look at the scorecard. The S&P 500 was down 10%, Nasdaq was down 39%, Dow was down 6%. I consider it a good year because valuations of companies are gradually beginning to return to predictable levels and expectations are becoming more reasonable.
Since 1921, when thorough record keeping on the market began, the NYSE has appreciated about 10% per year, the OTC market (more speculative stocks) by about 12%, bonds by about 4% and inflation . . .
Continue Reading: January 1, 2001
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