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By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on December 31st, 2002
Hello, and warmest holiday wishes to you all. I’m hoping that you all are enjoying good health and happiness at the year’s end, and that 2003 will bring even better things to you and yours. It is time again to discuss our outlook on world stocks, currencies and precious metals for a new year.
We were happy with our performance in 2002 which was helped by our view that gold and the Euro would rise, that tech stocks would fall and that in the fourth quarter of 2002 many small and medium sized solidly growing companies were undervalued. Our . . .
Continue Reading: December 31, 2002
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on November 1st, 2002
I’m happy to report that the market turn we forecast in our September 30th letter, where we said we could see a bottom “in October 2002 or in a few months…” began on October 10, 2002. The rally has carried the Dow up almost 20% and many beaten down tech stocks bounced up 40-50%. Over the last few days a normal corrective phase has begun and should continue until 30-50% of the recent rally has been retraced. After this correction we expect the market to again move ahead. We are looking for a rising market over the next few . . .
Continue Reading: November 1, 2002
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on September 30th, 2002
Hi, it’s September 30 and I’m writing to share our activity and to explain our outlook.
WHY WE ARE NOT WORRIED
We are holding cash, foreign currency bonds, gold shares and a small percent in U.S. Stocks with very low P/E ratios. We are not heavily invested, and what we do own are mostly contra-cyclical to U.S. stocks. We are currently 30 months into a major bear market in U.S. stocks. Many tech leaders of the 90’s are down over 90%, the NASDAQ is off 80%, the S&P 500 is off 45%. This 45% decline matches the ultimate 45% . . .
Continue Reading: September 30, 2002
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on August 30th, 2002
I’m writing at the end of August to give a bit of an interim update. We are getting a lot of calls from clients and friends asking about our view of the U.S. market. Have we seen the MOABO (Mother of all Buying Opportunities) as one of our clients and friends calls it or is the current market rally just a bear market bounce?
Our answer is both. In our opinion, the market has presented us with both a bear market bounce for most big cap tech stocks and for former leaders of the last market cycle, but it . . .
Continue Reading: August 30, 2002
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