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By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on December 27th, 2004
The end of 2004 is approaching and we are writing to convey our warm holiday greetings and wishes for a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year. We are also making a few predictions. We will elaborate on these points in our next email, which should reach you in the first week of 2005.
MAJOR EVENTS IN 2005 In our opinion the following events will dominate the landscape in 2005.
1. U.S. economic growth will slow in 2005 but will be positive for the year at about 2.5%. This rate is slower than 2004 growth. The country may come close . . .
Continue Reading: December 27, 2004
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on November 29th, 2004
We like the same investment themes that we have liked for 2 years.
ENERGY STOCKS
As we predicted in our November 8, 2004 letter, oil did not have a big correction and now it is rising again. We expect energy companies to do very well in coming weeks and we continue to own British and Canadian oil producers and U.S. natural gas and coal producers. Demand from developing countries like China, Russia and India and political problems worldwide argue for relatively high energy prices for some time to come. This is especially true when we consider the political problems . . .
Continue Reading: November 29, 2004
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on November 8th, 2004
TO: Friends WORLD MARKETS IN LIGHT OF THE U.S. ELECTION
In the aftermath of the U.S. election and President Bush’s announcement of new initiatives that he will undertake in the next four years, let us analyze the impact of the proposed initiatives and the historical events on the world markets.
Clearly, President Bush has big plans for the next few years. The plans include an overhaul of the tax code and of social security. They include a continuance of the foreign affairs policies of the first Bush term. These initiatives will be extremely expensive. I have heard, for instance, . . .
Continue Reading: November 8, 2004
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on October 6th, 2004
CANADA
Canada, the northern neighbor of the U.S., land of natural resources and much untrammeled beauty, is the subject of this part of our memo today. In our opinion, Canada is the best situated of all countries to benefit from the current events unfolding in the world today.
Canada does not have a large population, nor is it aggressively militant enough to attract interest from terrorists. It is not economically powerful enough to have numerous jealous enemies, nor is it interested in dominating world economics or politics. It is just happy to cruise smoothly along under the U.S. . . .
Continue Reading: October 6, 2004
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