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By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on February 25th, 2004
VOLATILITY
Volatility is alive and well, and the world’s markets are as volatile as they have been in some time. The volatility has a few causes. One is the intervention by the Japanese, Europeans and others to adjust or slow down the downtrend in the U.S. Dollar. Another is the short-term approach of many stock market traders active in world markets today.
In our opinion, the volatility created by central bank intervention in the markets is going to continue, and perhaps grow because central banks are now frightened. They are frightened that their plans for economic growth and the . . .
Continue Reading: February 25, 2004
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on February 12th, 2004
THE CURRENT SITUATION The correction in gold and metals and currencies has drawn to a close.
Both Fed Chairman Greenspan and Treasury Secretary Snow have spoken out for a weaker dollar, in both direct and subtle ways. World market players, especially in the currencies, have been trained by decades of experience to listen to the pronouncements of powerful economic figures. When the pronouncements are congruent with the obvious economic realities, the pronouncements are acted upon. When the pronouncements are not congruent with underlying economic realities, financial market participants listen politely, weigh the degree of power (intervention) at the command . . .
Continue Reading: February 12, 2004
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on February 11th, 2004
THE DOLLAR RALLY IS PROBABLY OVER
We are writing this memo to say that the dollar rally is probably over. It’s possible the correction in foreign currencies could last a little longer if pronouncements from European central bankers continue. However, with both Treasury Secretary Snow and Fed Chairman Greenspan endorsing a lower dollar it probably sends the dollar down to new lows. Our old price objective has been $1.35 US per Euro. After it reaches that price we will examine the fundamentals to set a new price target for the Euro.
Fortunately, we have been buying gold and other . . .
Continue Reading: February 11, 2004
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