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By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on August 20th, 2004
I am sending you another missive to share ideas and hopefully some salient thoughts about Iran, Iraq, gold and the dollar. I like to fool myself by thinking that these thoughts could have substantial and long lasting implications for global investment markets.
IRAN
I was first notified of the intentions of Iran several years ago by my friend Larry Jeddeloh, the prescient and articulate editor of The Institutional Strategist (who can be contacted at tis@tisgroup.net). At that time, Larry repeatedly pointed out to his readers that the U.S. would engage in three wars in the next few years. He . . .
Continue Reading: August 20, 2004
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on August 17th, 2004
WORLD ECONOMICS
It is no surprise that oil prices have been rising for a year and four months and continue to go higher.
Higher oil prices mean less consumer cash. Less consumer cash means lower economic growth (the U.S. economy being 65% consumer spending). Lower economic growth means lower corporate profits and lower inflationary pressures. All of this leads us to predict slower economic growth and slower inflation in 2005.
We believe that economists will gradually rein in their predictions for economic expansion next year and consumers may continue to rein in their expenditures.
Recent economic statistics from Japan . . .
Continue Reading: August 17, 2004
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on August 2nd, 2004
The month of July was a hairy one and we escaped most of the damage, suffering only modestly due to our avoidance of the hardest-hit sectors like high tech, and especially biotech. We held a lot of short-term debt instruments, primarily British Pound Government Bonds, during the month and have recently begun to invest the sale proceeds of these into U.S. and Japanese stocks.
We escaped much of the carnage, but what interests us most is that the market started to rally on Tuesday, July 27 and at that time we started to get back into the market. We . . .
Continue Reading: August 2, 2004
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