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By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on December 27th, 2005
ECONOMICS IN 2006
World economic growth should be reasonable in 2006. China, India, Russia, and Brazil will continue to grow at a rapid rate and continue to push the global economy. Every year Cassandra’s call for a melt down in China, and every year they are wrong. Where is the evidence? China recently revised up its GDP growth for the first nine months of 2005 to about 11%. This is strong by any measure.
The U.S. economy should grow at a moderate rate despite the end of the U.S. dollar rally. Europe and Japan on the other hand, should . . .
Continue Reading: 2006 FORECAST ISSUE
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on December 14th, 2005
I trust everyone will enjoy the holiday season. We send our warmest greetings to all and are writing this note partially for that purpose. There is, however, another reason for our writing.
A TREND OF THE LAST YEAR IS OVER. THE U.S. DOLLAR RALLY IS ENDING.
In the last few weeks many currencies have begun to mount rallies versus the dollar. Within last few days, even the chronically weak Japanese Yen, has rallied versus the U.S. dollar.
Why has the dollar rally begun to unravel? It is because interest rate differentials between the dollar and other currencies may be . . .
Continue Reading: CURRENCIES: THE DOLLAR RALLY IS OVER
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on December 12th, 2005
IT’S ALL STILL HAPPENING: GOLD, US STOCKS, GLOBAL STOCKS, COMMODITIES AND A FEW CURRENCIES ARE SEEING INFLOWS. REAL ESTATE IS SEEING OUTFLOWS.
The global liquidity bubble is in the process of gradually shifting from real estate to commodities and stocks. In the last few weeks, most stock markets that are connected to reasonably good economies, and some financial transparency, have gotten new cash infusions from investors.
Investors, by definition, people with money to invest. They are not stupid in the long run, although in the short run they can be remarkably shortsighted. They have come to realize that the . . .
Continue Reading: STILL ALL HAPPENING
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on November 23rd, 2005
WORLD INVESTMENTS AND THE MAJOR STOCK MARKETS
The U.S. and other major stock markets are strengthening as investors notice that real estate is losing its grip as the premier investment area. As a result, money is shifting from real estate to stock markets globally. If we look on a macro scale, we see that real estate bubbles worldwide have been driven by excess liquidity. This excess liquidity is in the world’s pension funds, investment portfolios and large corporations, and is a result of central banks all over the world increasing liquidity by excessive amounts over the past decade.
This . . .
Continue Reading: IT’S ALL HAPPENING – STOCKS AND GOLD ARE MOVING UP TOGETHER
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