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By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on October 14th, 2005
U.S STOCKS ARE DOWN FOR 3 VERY GOOD REASONS
1. Refco Capital Markets, which I believe to be one of the biggest over-the-counter derivatives firms, has serious problems. This company is a non-regulated arm of Refco, Inc., which handles over-the-counter transactions (derivatives), foreign exchange, fixed income trading and stock lending. In other words, they are active as a party to many derivative contracts. The Fed and every other central bank must act quickly to bail out this mess before it spreads. In my opinion, Jim Sinclair knows as much about this problem as anyone, and is the most truthful . . .
Continue Reading: U.S. STOCKS ARE UGLY NOW, BUT MAY BE PRETTY IN 2006
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on October 11th, 2005
Today, world oil production and world oil consumption are roughly in balance [assuming production shut downs for recent hurricanes end soon]. World consumption and production of oil are each about 85 million barrels per day.
In a nutshell, world energy production is not rising, while world energy consumption is. The optimists have unrealistically been hoping that Saudi Arabia can go from 12 million barrels a day of production to 20 -25 million barrels a day over the next few years. This is unvarnished wishful thinking, and in my opinion, has a probability of less than 1%.
In 1985, world . . .
Continue Reading: ENERGY, GOLD AND NON DOLLAR INVESTMENTS ARE ALL BENEFICIARIES OF CONTINUED GROWTH IN CHINA, INDIA AND BRAZIL
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on October 4th, 2005
President Bush’s plan to reform Social Security is dead. The huge expenses connected with the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq plus the 2 big hurricanes, have used up all of the money that the administration wanted to expend to restructure the social security system and Medicaid.
US GOVERNMENT SPENDING: TAKE YOUR PICK–REPUBLICANS BRING BIG DEFICITS, DEMOCRATS BRING BIG DEFICITS
The European media of the moderate and conservative stripe is used to lambasting President Bush. The US media appears to be gearing up to do their own critique.
In Europe, recently the Financial Times newspaper and The Economist magazine have . . .
Continue Reading: SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM IS DEAD
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