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By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on March 30th, 2007
HEAD OF ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK WARNS ABOUT HUGE LIQUIDITY IN THE REGION The head of the Asian Development Bank recently warned in a statement that something must be done to sterilize the $2.3 trillion (that’s right; trillion) of reserves in the coffers of the major Asian nations’ (primarily China, Russia and Japan) central banks. These reserves must be sterilized, or it is likely to create inflationary pressures and bubbles in certain areas, like real estate.
Our response to his statement: “He is late with this warning.” This immense cache of money held by central banks has already sent the . . .
Continue Reading: $2.3 TRILLION ASIAN RESERVE SURPLUS
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on March 20th, 2007
Beginning in April or May, after it is realized that there is consistently increasing demand and production is not going to be as big as predicted, oil will rise. Investors are finally becoming aware that the non OPEC oil producers were telling, what Jim Sinclair refers to as, “whoppers” about the amount oil they could produce.
Oil stocks have been declining for several months, and the trend appears to be changing for the better companies. Further, after the seasonal period of low demand, while consumers shift from the winter heating season to the summer cooling season, we expect a . . .
Continue Reading: OIL PRICES WILL RISE
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on March 15th, 2007
Fear is everywhere. Let’s look at the fears. The Yen carry trade seems to be the big fear on a global basis. Subprime mortgage failures are an additional fear in the U.S.
We do agree that subprime mortgage problems will lead to the failure of several poorly run sub prime mortgage lenders, and should lead to criminal charges for many of the mortgage brokers who sold fraudulent loans to the mortgage companies. It may even follow that some the founders of these poorly managed, irresponsible and unwise lenders should return their ill-gotten stock profits that they received before their . . .
Continue Reading: THE FEAR
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on March 5th, 2007
INDIA CAME OUT WITH ITS NEW BUDGET LAST WEEK
The Indian budget is very important to the Indian economy. The new budget is very growth oriented. This year’s budget allocates resources toward more investment from private sources. Historically, one of the complaints about India is that the bureaucracy is unresponsive, and slow to implement new initiatives. I expect this will put upward pressure on India’s growth rate to above 9% this year..
The Budget focuses on:
1. Increasing infrastructure development [a huge need in India] in the areas of transportation, energy and communications using private/public partnerships. More focus was . . .
Continue Reading: WHY THE SKY IS NOT FALLING
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