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By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on September 26th, 2007
Traveling in Asia as I am currently doing, always reminds me of the huge changes taking place in the world in general and in Asia in particular.
Industrial societies are a very recent development in the history of the world and have existed only for about 300 years. Alan Greenspan pointed out in his new book that he had been very lucky to take the reins of the Federal Reserve at a time of great productivity growth and economic expansion globally. He certainly was lucky, and all of us living today have been quite lucky to live in an . . .
Continue Reading: Monty’s Latest From Hong Kong
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on September 20th, 2007
Credit crises are answered with monetary easing by government monetary authorities globally. The Fed and all central banks provide liquidity in various ways as the crisis unfolds in their country or in the world.
Let’s list the crises over the past 20 years and see what the outcome of the liquidity pumping was. Did the liquidity injections save the world’s economies from major recessions…or did it have the unintended consequence of creating a new series of bubbles?
CRISIS CAN CREATE BIG OPPORTUNITY In 1990, the U.S. Savings & Loan crisis was followed by a recession…..creating a short bear market . . .
Continue Reading: A LIST OF CRISES AND OUTCOMES
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on September 18th, 2007
Boy, do I ever remember when I called for oil at $100 dollars by 2009 a few years ago, when oil was much lower. I got a mountain of negative correspondence from the traditional investment community. Now everyone is saying “Oh yeah, we always knew it would go to $100…” To be truthful, very few knew it. Jim Sinclair, myself and our team were among the few.
Now, when I call for inflation to arrive in the developed world as a result of rising prices in the developing world and rising food and energy prices, guess what? I am . . .
Continue Reading: OIL AT $82 PER BARREL
By Other, on September 13th, 2007
We have been bullish on gold, oil, base metals, India, China and transportation of energy and minerals for a very long time and that bullishness continues. In a recent email, I stated that we had become more cautious short term about the demand for base metals although continued to be long-term bullish. Our logic was that a U.S. economic slowdown in demand would impact the prices of base metals…and even though it takes many years to bring on new mines, a slowdown in U.S. demand would impact global prices.
Now after a few days of deep research and . . .
Continue Reading: BASE METALS
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