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By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on July 28th, 2008
COMMODITIES ARE TAKING A BREATHER WHILE…
The establishment functionaries try to make the sow’s ear banking system into a silk purse with a PR campaign headed up by those who own huge amounts of dollars and hate to see their investments lose value too rapidly. This is, to put it politely, a difficult and unenviable task. The U.S. and European central banks are trying to add liquidity to the banking systems in these parts of the world as the banks have large and partially unmanageable problems. The only real solution to these problems is to continue to debase the . . .
Continue Reading: THE BANKING PROBLEM IS NOT TRIVIAL
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on July 17th, 2008
We at Guild Investment Management have mentioned the problems with derivatives 31 times in the five years between 2003 and the present in our market commentaries, yet people did not listen.
If the U.S. Fed, U.K. central bank, and other central banks continue to protect all of the institutions, all of the shareholders, and all the depositors, the crisis will actually be more prolonged and more difficult to come out of than if they let a lot of the smaller institutions go broke.
Thus far, it is obvious that the Fed and the U.S. and U.K. administrations . . .
Continue Reading: DERIVATIVES, BANKS, AND BAILOUTS
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on July 10th, 2008
This is a time of great risk and great opportunity.
On one hand, there are many problems (we will enumerate a few of them later in this letter), but on the other hand, there are many opportunities. To take advantage of the opportunities:
I) One must be willing to invest for a few years without the need for quick, panicky withdrawals of capital.
II) One must be willing to tolerate volatility…as the financial system has weakened. Volatility has reverted to the type that was seen in the 1970’s. That period, like today, was a period of big problems and . . .
Continue Reading: 1970’s vs. 2008
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on July 2nd, 2008
INFLATION DRIVER #10: DOLLAR PEGS AND CENTRAL BANK STERILIZATION OF INFLOWS
As we discussed in driver number 9, worldwide money supply is growing fast, and excess money chasing goods and services creates inflation. China, Russia, Persian Gulf countries, India, and Brazil are growing their money supply way above the rates the governments desire. In fact, world money supply growth is estimated at 13-14% over the last 12 months.
Countries that run current account deficits, such as the U.S., Britain, and others have substantial trade imbalances with countries running current account surpluses, such as China, Russia, Singapore, Norway, and the . . .
Continue Reading: ‘INFLATION’S DRIVER’ THE FINAL OF THE SERIES
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