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By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on November 24th, 2008
WE ARE QUITE CERTAIN THAT IN THE UNITED STATES, BANK AFTER BANK WLL BE RESCUED AS CITIBANK WAS THIS WEEKEND
WHO WILL BE NEXT…BANK OF AMERICA, JP MORGAN, GOLDMAN SACHS, MORGAN STANLEY?
The surprise is not that they will be rescued, the surprise is that not enough attention is being paid to the fact that the U.S. will have to sell several $ trillions in bonds in order to finance the above bail outs. If bond buyers wise up, they will stop buying a bond with an almost infinite quantity for sale, and they will start selling them. . . .
Continue Reading: WE ARE QUITE CERTAIN THAT IN THE UNITED STATES, BANK AFTER BANK WILL BE RESCUED AS CITIBANK WAS THIS WEEKEND.
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on November 14th, 2008
THINGS CHANGE FAST
A few weeks ago many thought I was out of my mind. I had the temerity to state that I thought that we were going into a depression, not a recession, and that the economic decline would last for two to three years. Now, it looks like a few others are coming around to my view. The chairman of Goldman Sachs recently said we are facing a banking crisis worse than the Great Depression. The former chairman of the New York Stock Exchange said it is comparable to the Great Depression.
More and more are willing . . .
Continue Reading: RAPID CHANGE
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on November 11th, 2008
HOWEVER, THE STOCK, COMMODITY, AND CURRENCY MARKETS ARE DIFFERENT FROM THE ECONOMY.
The stock market discounts future economic events. Right now it is discounting economic decline that will not take place for months. Financial stocks have been declining for over 16months, and the U.S. market as a whole for 13months. Yet, if you believe the Government’s economic statistics, the economy was growing through June.
Many stocks could fall further over the next several months or years in our opinion. Financial stocks will be among them. However, some stocks are so cheap that they deserve to be bought, even though . . .
Continue Reading: THE ECONOMY WILL NOT BOTTOM FOR MANY MONTHS, PERHAPS A COUPLE OF YEARS.
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on November 3rd, 2008
U.S. ECONOMIC NUMBERS SHOW DECLINE OF 0.3% GDP IN Q3 2008
The facts probably indicate that the recession/depression actually began in the fourth quarter of 2007 or early in 2008. Since that time, we expect that real GDP has shrunk by about 4% from its peak. Before the current economic correction is over, we expect to see peak to trough economic growth shrink by at least 10%…and the economic shrinkage will last from late 2007 through 2009.
The facts as we see them:
1. Those who work in government like to please their bosses. Statistics gatherers who work . . .
Continue Reading: U.S. ECONOMIC NUMBERS SHOW DECLINE OF 0.3% GDP IN Q3 2008
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