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By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on December 28th, 2009
Theme #1 – Equities will outperform early in 2010
We believe that new money will flow into stocks for at least the first few months of 2010. Like most professional investors, we see stocks as the most attractive investment option for 2010.
Let us look at the alternatives to stocks for investors. In an environment where inflation is starting to resurge in many countries, bonds are in danger of declining in value as inflation pushes long term interest rates up in 2010. Due to overleveraging and excess inventory, real estate is doing poorly in Japan, U.S., and Europe. . . .
Continue Reading: FOUR THEMES FOR INVESTING IN 2010
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on December 15th, 2009
THE U.S. DOLLAR RALLY HAS BEGUN We recently wrote that the U.S. dollar could begin a rally after the New Year. It appears the rally has arrived three weeks before we had anticipated, and we expect the rally to last into 2010. How long the rally continues will be determined by the magnitude and pattern of the rally now underway. In the current dollar rally environment, we do not anticipate that gold or oil will move much higher. We do not see them as vulnerable to a major decline. We expect them to trade in a range, resting for . . .
Continue Reading: THE U.S. DOLLAR RALLY HAS BEGUN
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on December 3rd, 2009
DUBAI
The debt crisis in Dubai is just the first of many that will occur in the Middle East and Eastern Europe in the coming years. It was a wake up call, but not particularly serious by itself. Many Eastern European countries, the Baltic nations, Hungary, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Kazakhstan, Romania, the UAE in the Middle East, Vietnam in Asia, are in poor economic shape. Their economies are over-levered, and have low income levels. The property markets in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have a long way to fall, and many banks (primarily in Europe) will have to . . .
Continue Reading: FACTS EVAPORATE MYTHS
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on November 23rd, 2009
ELECTION ECONOMICS-NOVEMBER 2010 ELECTIONS
Although they are almost a year away, the 2010 U.S. elections should be foremost on the minds of all investors. Why? Because the 468 incumbents in the House and Senate who are running for reelection are already springing into action. Terrified about their prospects for reelection, the candidates are ready to do (spend) what it takes to secure another term. This will set into motion a chain of economic behaviors that will ultimately have a depressive effect on the U.S. dollar.
WHAT THE POLITICIANS FEAR
Let’s consider the position in which incumbents running for reelection . . .
Continue Reading: ATTENTION: CONGRESS WILL SPEND BEFORE 2010 ELECTIONS
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