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BRITAIN

By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on January 27th, 2009

…GORDON, HOW I LOVE YOU, HOW I LOVE YOU, MY DEAR OLD GORDON…[sung to George Gershwin’s old American folk song “Swanee”]

We conjecture that this tune will not be sung in the halls of Britain in the future.  The current British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, is presiding in a major decline in the fortunes of his country.  This is the same “brilliant” Gordon Brown who forcefully told the British people when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer (finance minister), that Britain no longer needed the hoard of gold in its reserves.  During his tenure Britain proceeded to sell off . . .
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WHY ALL THE EMOTION? …CHINA WILL DO WELL IN 2009.

By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on January 19th, 2009

There is a great deal of gnashing of teeth and renting of garments lately about China’s economic growth in the western press. China says that they will grow by 8% in 2009, and the more historically accurate western economists think 7%.  I am in the 7% camp, and I think positive 7% is good growth.  It compares with minus 3% for the U.S. and Europe.

Many people see political revolution in China as a result of layoffs of migrant workers who worked in export industries.  We disagree.  There will be no revolution or anything close to a revolution. . . .
Continue Reading: WHY ALL THE EMOTION? …CHINA WILL DO WELL IN 2009.

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JANUARY 16, 2009

By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on January 16th, 2009

The excellent Shadow Government Statistics economic service [shadowstats.com] makes the following statements today January 16th, 2009 in a flash update.

“The annualized real contraction for fourth-quarter 2008 retail sales was 17.1%.

“Consistent with a still-deepening recession, fourth quarter 2008 production showed an annualized quarterly contraction of 11.5%, following an 8.9% contraction in the third quarter.”

“A depression is defined [SGS] as a recession where peak-to-trough contraction exceeds 10%, a level currently exceeded in annualized terms by both fourth-quarter retail sales and industrial production.”

SUMMARY

Since we at Guild Investment Management predicted several months . . .
Continue Reading: JANUARY 16, 2009

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BARACK OBAMA AND BEN BERNANKE HAVE COME AROUND TO THE VIEW WE HAVE HELD FOR MONTHS

By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on January 15th, 2009

They are admitting that it is going to take a lot more than fiscal stimulus and the already pledged hundreds of billions of bailout dollars to ensure stability in the financial system.   In a speech in London this week, Ben Bernanke said that more capital injections and guarantees are necessary to ensure stability in the financial system.

Obama has called the situation “dire” and his transition team of economic advisors is lobbying hard to get the remaining $350 billion in TARP funds released by Congress.  While Congress angles for increased influence on how this money is spent, Obama . . .
Continue Reading: BARACK OBAMA AND BEN BERNANKE HAVE COME AROUND TO THE VIEW WE HAVE HELD FOR MONTHS

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