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By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on May 28th, 2009
The U.S. dollar is weak, and the U.S. administration has no choice but to continue to allow the currency to weaken.
As we have pointed out in these pages many times, the U.S. has to finance huge budget deficits for this year and for the foreseeable future. This must be done by selling bonds. Primarily, the sales will be made to non-U.S. buyers. The U.S. has two options if it wants to sell trillions of dollars in bonds to foreigners:
1. Raise interest rates substantially. 2. Let the dollar decline and make U.S. bonds cheaper to foreigners who hold . . .
Continue Reading: THE NUMBER ONE TREND – A WEAK DOLLAR
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on May 19th, 2009
Every five years, assuming there are no failed confidence votes, the Indian electorate goes to the polls for a month long voting exercise where over 400 million voters (out of about 700 million eligible voters) decide the country’s leadership.
The election that just ended this past weekend will return the Congress party coalition and the incorruptible Manmohan Singh to the position of Prime Minister. The Congress party coalition will have close to a majority and will be able to make a strong coalition without the communists or the radical right. We expect a pro-business, pro-growth economic policy, a pro-western . . .
Continue Reading: INDIAN ELECTIONS ARE POSITIVE FOR INDIAN INVESTMENT
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on May 15th, 2009
I just returned from traveling, and upon returning was thrilled to hear of the following announcements on Wednesday May, 13th.
REGULATION OF OTC DERIVATIVES IS NEARER—A GLIMMER OF GOOD NEWS
The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced that all over-the-counter (OTC) derivative settlements need to take place in a clearing house, and dealers must meet minimum capital requirements. Regulating derivatives is a good start toward avoiding another financial system meltdown such as the one we have been experiencing; however there are lasting effects of the current melt down that must still be addressed.
The reason that so many derivatives were . . .
Continue Reading: REGULATION OF OTC DERIVATIVES IS NEARER
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on May 7th, 2009
Today, we would like to talk about India, but first we would like to summarize our views on investment management strategy and tactics.
A. Since corporate profits grow most rapidly in countries where GDP is growing most rapidly, focus investments in those countries. Which countries among the large countries will grow GDP and corporate profits fastest? In our opinion, #1 will be China, #2 will be India, #3 will be Brazil, #4 will be the U.S., Canada, and Australia. Europe and Japan will bring up the rear.
B. How we judge stock valuation. There are many measures of stock . . .
Continue Reading: INDIA
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