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By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on December 29th, 2010
2011 In Context
There are two major trends in place that set the stage for world economics in 2011. The first is China’s continued rise.
Although the U.S. remains the most powerful economic force on earth, China will soon be replacing Europe as the second most powerful economic force. China’s power is not built on sheer size alone: indeed, China’s statesman-like behavior during the current economic crisis in U.S. and Europe has highlighted its maturity and greatly enhanced its image. China’s willingness to bailout Europe and the U.S. through the purchase of bonds is a sign that they are preparing . . .
Continue Reading: 2011 HERE WE COME!
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on December 22nd, 2010
“It’s all in the mind, you know.” – George Harrison
Obama Moves Towards The Center
It would appear that President Obama absorbed the fact that November’s midterm elections eliminated the Democrats’ majority control of the House of Representatives and lowered his party’s Senate majority. He has been much more cooperative with the opposition party, and has agreed to compromise on the recently passed tax bill.
Clearly, the agenda of the new Congress will be to cut costs and dial back entitlements, and we expect to see many controversial and contentious debates on how to cut costs and whether . . .
Continue Reading: THE WORLD’S BIGGEST BANKS HAVE A COMBINED 2.3 TRILLION DOLLAR GAP
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on December 17th, 2010
This Week We Make Some Changes To Our Recommendations
After several months of bullishness on a number of emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, we are no longer recommending investment in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Chile and Peru. We are reinstating our bearish view on U.S. long and intermediate term bonds. For more on these recommendations, see the Recommendations section below.
U.S. And European Fiscal Policy Is The Key To Bond, Currency, And Stock Markets In 2011
Many of those who have been holding U.S. bonds have made a mistake by thinking that the incoming Republicans in . . .
Continue Reading: THIS WEEK WE MAKE SOME CHANGES TO OUR RECOMMENDATIONS
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on December 9th, 2010
U.S. Tax Cuts Extended – This Is Bullish For Stocks, And It Means More QE From The U.S. And Europe After the news broke of an agreement between U.S. lawmakers to extend the Bush tax breaks, some people concluded that the fiscal stimulus could reduce the pressure on the Fed from needing to do more QE. We disagree. We believe the tax breaks will mean even more QE…and the bond market seems to agree with us. This weeks’ poorly bid U.S. Treasury auctions says that while investors agree that tax breaks are good for encouraging . . .
Continue Reading: U.S. TAX CUTS EXTENDED-THIS IS BULLISH FOR STOCKS, AND IT MEANS MORE QE FROM THE U.S. AND EUROPE
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