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By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on April 30th, 2010
THE EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS KEEPS EXPANDING
Greek debt has been rated as junk quality, Spanish and Portuguese debt have undergone downgrades and there are rumors circulating of a possible Italian debt downgrade.
This reminds us of the so-called Asian Contagion of late 1990’s during which bank and government debt contagion sent Asian markets down dramatically and caused the value of several regional currencies to fall. At that time, the U.S. and European markets, which were not part of the crisis, corrected by over 10 percent and then quickly recouped and were followed by market rallies. If the current European . . .
Continue Reading: MARKET SOPHISTICATION AN ILLUSION?
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on April 20th, 2010
U.S. POLITICS AND BANK REFORM LEGISLATION
It was widely reported this past weekend; Goldman Sachs, the most profitable investment bank is being sued for fraud by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The U.K. and other countries are joining the fray to try and re-coup some of their losses on derivatives.
We do not know if the facts, which will be presented in court months or years from now will exonerate Goldman Sachs or find them guilty, but we do know that the SEC’s suit will have two immediate effects.
The first effect will be to insure the passage . . .
Continue Reading: WHILE THE DEVELOPED WORLD LEGISLATES, THE DEVELOPING WORLD INNOVATES.
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on April 15th, 2010
We are sending a message of optimism about many markets. We are optimistic about Asian stocks in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. We are also optimistic about commodity producing stocks in countries such as Canada, Australia, and Brazil. U.S. export companies including those in technology, shipping railroads, autos, food, medical, basic materials, and other U.S. sectors are also attractive. We continue to favor European export stocks in the same areas, and we believe that U.S. bank stocks continue to be attractive as a trade. We are bullish on commodities such as gold, oil, iron ore, coal, wheat, and . . .
Continue Reading: WE LIKE THE WAY MANY WORLD MARKETS LOOK
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on April 7th, 2010
WE HAVE BEEN ASKED OVER AND OVER ABOUT THE RISKS IN CHINA…AND OUR ANSWER IS THE SAME: WE EXPECT CHINA TO REMAIN STRONG!
The press always carries questions about China’s perceived risk, thus they are on peoples’ minds. Though we have addressed many of these questions and concerns in previous letters, we are happy to explain our fundamental optimism about China.
We hear three main questions:
Question 1: China has been an export driven country in the past, how can they make it without exporting as much?
Answer: It’s an undeniable fact that exports account for a decreasing percentage . . .
Continue Reading: GLOBAL MARKETS LOOK GOOD TO US
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