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By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on July 29th, 2010
WHY DOES HIGH PRICED REAL ESTATE SELL SO EASILY IN CHINA? China appears to have a huge "grey" economy, meaning that it is fueled by grey or unreported income. On July 19th, China’s most famous researcher on grey income, Dr. Wang Xiaolu, stipulated that actual urban household income may be 100 percent higher than the official data reported by the government. He also concluded that China’s per capita disposable income in 2008 should have been 67 percent higher than the official data.
Dr. Wang goes on to say that China’s national housing affordability ratio (the ratio of average home . . .
Continue Reading: CHINA’S GREY ECONOMY
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on July 20th, 2010
SO MANY ARE CONVINCED THAT DEFLATION IS AHEAD…WE ARE NOT CONVINCED
For years, a few have believed that inflation will be the long-term outcome. We have been among them. We mentioned months ago in our commentary that there would be short term deflationary influences within the U.S. and developed economies in the last half of 2010. Even though the developed economies are struggling to grow, and we predicted that there would be concerns about deflation, we want to reconfirm with our readers that our long-term view that inflation is looming in front of us…and history bears out our thesis.
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Continue Reading: THERE IS HISTORICAL PRECEDENT FOR AN INFLATIONARY OUTCOME TO THE CURRENT WORLD FINANCIAL CRISIS
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on July 15th, 2010
IS WAR ON THE HORIZON IN IRAN? MANY SIGNS POINT THAT WAY
Although many have predicted over the past five years that Iran would be at war with the west or Israel, such an outcome has not developed. We seldom comment on war preparation activities and have not done so recently, and although it is not our normal modus operandi, we would like to point out that currently many signs point to the potential for hostility with Iran to develop. Please note the following points.
1. Iran is becoming more isolated. 2. Russia has stated that they believe Iran . . .
Continue Reading: IS WAR ON THE HORIZON IN IRAN?
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on July 8th, 2010
EMERGING MARKET GDP GROWTH: THE PAST TWO DECADES, AND OUR PROJECTIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE
According to the IMF, World Bank, and the United Nations’ historical data, GDP growth rates have varied widely for emerging markets over the last fifty years. We will focus on the past twenty years from 1990 to the present so that we may draw conclusions to help us project future growth in the developing world. Once we are able to make an educated guess of the GDP growth, we will be able to compare it to the more thoroughly analyzed and widely predicted growth . . .
Continue Reading: WHICH EMERGING COUNTRIES WILL GROW THE FASTEST FOR THE NEXT DECADE
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