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By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on April 28th, 2011
“That’s another fine mess you’ve gotten me into.”
Early cinema comedian Oliver Hardy, of Laurel and Hardy fame
U.S. Economy — The Big Picture
A mess by all accounts—and seemingly getting messier.
As we have been saying for some time, U.S. economic growth is stuck in the slow lane. Very slow lane. There are few signs of any significant lane changing ahead.
We have seen a serious slide in the American standard of living over the past three years, since the beginning of the recession. The slide can be measured in many ways. Food stamps recipients have increased . . .
Continue Reading: U.S. Economy – The Big Picture
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on April 21st, 2011
(Our commentary below is a continuation of last week’s discussion on the current climate of mounting inflation)
Rising prices at the pump. Higher food prices. These in-your-face realities are waking up a somnambulant public to the new dawn of inflation.
Such realities are not lost on investors who, unlike the general public, are hip to other signals of economic distress. For instance, the International Monetary Fund last week scolded the U.S. about its out-of-control debt situation. And just a few days ago, bond rating agency Standard & Poor’s did likewise. Both admonished the U.S. for not having a . . .
Continue Reading: Waking Up to Inflation — Part 2
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on April 14th, 2011
Spring has arrived. Flowers are blooming. And so is inflation.
We’ve been using the “I word” for quite a while here at the newsletter. As we look around, we see more and more signs indicating that people are waking up to the fact that inflation is here. The new awareness has accelerated the upward move in gold, oil, silver, base metals, food-related investments, better managed foreign currencies, and stocks in faster-growing countries. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, however, recently described the inflation in asset prices as “transitory,” suggesting that policymakers are either not convinced, don’t want to be convinced, or . . .
Continue Reading: INFLATION: MARKETS SEE IT…BUT POLICYMAKERS CAN’T / WON’T
By Monty Guild and Tony Danaher, on April 7th, 2011
Emerging Markets: Stocks Revive as Interest Hikes Halt
During the past year emerging market governments have been raising interest rates to cool down mounting inflation. Stocks in many countries cooled in the process, and were stuck in stall mode since late 2010.
We believe the interest hikes have had their effect. In anticipation of an end to climbing interest rates, stock markets in several emerging countries have come to life again. These next few months may provide a window where inflation pressures may lessen, although we believe we are still in a long period of rising inflation. . . .
Continue Reading: HOW SECURE ARE AMERICA’S OIL SUPPLIES?
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