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By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on August 25th, 2011
QE Watch
As we watch the meltdown in Europe, events appear to be developing very much as we anticipated.
Gold is up. European stocks and banks are down, and so, too, are world stocks.
The fear of a global recession is growing, a fear we expect to persist until the next massive money printing effort —the third round of quantitative easing (QE) — is launched in Europe later this year. The U.S. and Japan will follow suit, and probably China and other countries as well. While different in form and name . . .
Continue Reading: QE Watch 2011
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on August 18th, 2011
Investor Risk Perceptions Shifting
A major shift in perception is spreading throughout the global investing community — from institutions to individuals. Increasingly, investors are carefully weighing which countries’ bonds, stocks, and currencies are more risky or less risky? The shift has gathered momentum since the end of June when the Fed stopped buying U.S. bonds under its second quantitative easing program, known as QE2 for short.
To better understand what’s going on, let’s step back to 2008, the year of historic financial and market blowups. At that time, markets in emerging countries fell the most precipitously despite . . .
Continue Reading: Investor Risk Perceptions Shifting
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on August 9th, 2011
Markets?
We think that the months before the U.S. election in 2012 will be much like the months between the fall of 2008 and early 2009, when the U.S. market bottomed.
We detect no decisiveness in Europe, which happens to be the epicenter of the current market meltdown. There is clearly no decisiveness in the U.S., where two opposing world views have faced off: those who believe in wealth redistribution on the left, and those who believe in a balanced budget and pay down of debt on the right.
Clearly, the world’s stock, bond, currency, and commodity markets are . . .
Continue Reading: Got Volatility?
By Monty Guild & Tony Danaher, on August 3rd, 2011
The Debt Ceiling Raised, but Mega Problems Still Unresolved
Congress has voted to avoid a short-term default on its obligations. Thankfully, the operatics are behind us; at least for a while. More importantly, the U.S. is still no closer to finding a long-term solution to its dire fiscal problems. The legislation that was passed does not even attempt to address the structural deficiencies in the tax code, the eroding job market, or the burgeoning and no longer affordable entitlement programs.
Next year’s election shapes up as a referendum between taxpayers and government benefit recipients. We expect . . .
Continue Reading: The Debt Ceiling Raised, but Mega Problems Still Unresolved
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