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July 5, 2012

July 5, 2012

Guild Investment Conference Call Scheduled for July 12th (10:00 AM PST / 1:00 PM EST) 

Guild Investment Management Market View — the Next 15 Years (1 CE Credit)

Our unique view is based upon thinking ahead, rather than reacting to crises as they develop…

On July 12th, we will be hosting our next conference call for our Investment Management Clients and Gold Subscribers.  In this call, we will discuss the investment risks and rewards that one can expect in the near, intermediate, and longer term.

If you are a financial professional, you will be able to earn 1 CE credit if you attend the conference call.

Become a Gold Subscriber today to receive our weekly Premium Global Market Commentary, where we discuss our formulated plans and investing strategies for the next fifteen years. 

As  Gold Subscriber, you will also be able to participate in our live conference calls and have the opportunity for  your questions to be addressed in the conference call.

Please click the following link to learn about Gold Subscription Gold Subscription or contact our office at (310) 826-8600.


Europe Offers Markets a Ray of Hope

Commodities, U.S. stocks, foreign stocks, gold, and oil all traded higher last Friday, June 29.  The big rally came during a crescendo of negative media punditry, with the televised talking heads calling for a collapse in commodities, gold, and stocks.  On the contrary — stocks, commodities, and gold rallied as Europe took significant action to stabilize their banking system and address the Spanish sovereign debt crisis.  European markets were up an average of almost 4%; the U.S. S&P 500 was up about 2.5%; gold was up $53, or about 3.4%; oil was up over $7 or 9%; copper was up 4.9%; and corn and soybeans were up about 3.2%.

Three days earlier, media were aflutter with reports that commodities had entered into a major bear market — but let’s face it, financial TV is the mouthpiece of conventional wisdom… which, as we have often said, may be conventional, but is far from wise.

Europe took significant action, although the magnitude of the efforts is still undefined.  By creating a supranational banking regulator, this package gets closer to the source of the problem than any previous effort.  Feeble regulation of European banks by politicized national regulators has been a major cause of the European banking crisis.

We expect stocks to continue to rally for awhile.  Gold should also enjoy a rally, because everyone realizes that the events of Friday open the door for much more QE now and in the future…

Did Germany Flip-Flop?…

To Us Merkel’s Behavior Was Expected

Merkel will achieve her main goals by the implementation of this plan:

1. The creation of a Europe-wide banking regulator…

2. Merkel’s second goal is to make sure that assistance to Euro member nations by any EU bailout agency will have guarantees attached — commitments will be secured by gold or other acceptable collateral.

What the Pact Will Do1. The pact allows Eurozone rescue funds to recapitalize Spain’s banking system directly…

2.  Further, the pact agreed to buy Italian sovereign bonds in undisclosed amounts directly from the Italian government, lowering Italian borrowing costs and increasing loan availability…

3. On a very positive note, the plan stipulates that previous holders of debt will not be subordinated to the bailout funds when loans are made…

4. The pact recognizes that more money will have to be appropriated to act as a backstop for the above actions and for future support…

5. Interestingly, there was no mention of a previously floated proposal for a Europe-wide guarantee for bank deposits up to a fixed amount — say €100,000…

Question: Where Will the Bailout Capital/Money Come From?  Answer: QE…


Central Banks in Emerging Countries Exhibit Intelligence by Buying Gold

The actions by European governments demonstrate why central banks with surplus cash have been continuous and consistent buyers of gold for years.  The reality that Europe has no choice but to continue with QE, explains why central banks in developing countries will continue to buy gold.

When central banks sell foreign currency bonds and buy gold for their reserves, they are trading a continuously devaluing asset (many of these government bonds pay little or no interest these days) for the purchasing power protection of gold.  Gold does not pay interest, but gold has the…


GIM Offers an Answer to the Deflationists…

The bottom line is that easy money policies will continue for the foreseeable future.  Money can be made investing in this environment.  If your portfolio is set up to save you from deflation, you will likely miss a lot of opportunity.


‘Affordable Care Act is a Tax’ — U.S. Supreme Court…

Suggested Investment Strategy…

Protectionism on the Rise?…

To get the full contentbecome a Gold Subscriber today to receive our weekly Premium Global Market Commentary, where we discuss our formulated plans and investing strategies for the next fifteen years. 

Please click the following link to learn about Gold Subscription Gold Subscription or contact our office at (310) 826-8600.


Guild Basic Needs IndexTM is not blazing  — Yet

As long as governments are placing a high priority on funding their spending and keeping banking systems afloat, we can expect more money printing and more liquidity to be injected into the global economy.

The current period of disinflation and slowing growth is muting price increases.  The fact that prices have not caught fire gives many policymakers the freedom to throw more fuel (easy money) into the system.  While we agree that inflation has not ignited, we are on the lookout for it.  Advance signs of a coming rise in prices will probably show up first in the prices of certain items that people cannot live without, such as food, clothing, shelter, and energy.  We are tracking those prices here in the Guild Basic Needs IndexTM, so stay tuned for updates.

Watch these charts.  The effects of trillions of newly printed dollars, euros, pounds, yen, etc. will show up here. 
GBNI May 2012.JPG


Guild’s Recommendation Tracker

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If your firm uses soft dollar arrangements to pay for research, please contact us to discuss how to soft dollar your Gold Subscription.