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December 12, 2013

December 12, 2013

Complimentary Access To Our Year- End Conference Call
We hosted our year-end conference call on November 15, 2013 for our gold subscribers and investment management clients.  On the call we discussed the 2014 investment outlook for stocks, income investments, commodities, and other markets. 

For a limited time, we are making this exclusive conference call available to the public.  Simply click the link below to register and you will obtain access to our 2014 investment outlook.  Click the button below to register.

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Five Years Later, Have We Learned Anything From the 2008 Housing Meltdown?
What caused the Great Recession?  The answer you get often depends on the political persuasion of the person you’re asking.  While we predicted the derivatives crisis in bonds early and often beginning in 2006, we notice much blame falling either on irresponsible banks on one side, or irresponsible borrowers who lied about their income on the other.  The answer is much more complex.

The fact is that corruption doesn’t just occupy one place on the political spectrum.  Mortgage lenders and government officials, borrowers who lied about their income, real estate professionals, ratings agencies and bond underwriters — all saw an unprecedented river of cash in the housing bubble, and all reached in to scoop up their share.  And all share the blame for the collapse that followed.


Is It the Right Time to Invest in the Defense Industry?

Defense and aerospace contractors are experiencing two significant headwinds.  We could describe the first as secular — the long-term drawdown of forces as U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan reach their conclusions.  The second is cyclical — the pressure on military budgets arising from the sequester, itself a consequence of the financial crisis and its aftermath.

Defense lobbyists have been hard at work on Capitol Hill to convince lawmakers of the dire effects of these headwinds, and the need to restore robust funding to the sector.  But the fact is that there are tailwinds which are compensating for the difficulties the industry is facing.  And judging from the performance of the big players this year, those tailwinds are stronger.

Behind them, they have two tailwinds: increased demand from and sales to developing nations in some increasingly unstable environments, and the advent of cyber-warfare and the need to build out capacity for the “virtual battlefield.”


Inquire About Our Investment Management Services Today

We hope you have found our weekly global market commentary useful in keeping you informed about the global macro landscape and navigating the complexity of the financial markets. 

Guild Investment Management has been managing the wealth of many affluent investors since 1971.

2014 is just around the corner and many changes are proposed in the United States.  Do you have a  seasoned investment advisor able to position your portfolio for any opportunities or to employ a defensive strategy for a market correction?  

To learn more about Guild Investment Management and the services we can offer you, please visit www.guildinvestment.com or contact us at (310) 826-8600 and schedule a complimentary portfolio analysis and review.


Is the World Trade Organization Relevant?

After failing to come up with a comprehensive trade deal in its 18-year existence, the World Trade Organization dialed back its expectations and delivered something modest but significant in Bali over the weekend: a pact that looks set to aid poor countries especially, by reducing transaction costs at borders and ports, and cutting red tape at customs.  The deal could create 20 million jobs globally and add $1 trillion to the global economy.


Guild Basic Needs IndexTM

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Track our analysis in these letters at www.gbni.info.


Market Summary

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In This Week’s Global Market Commentary, We Also Discuss:

Small Banks 

Consolidation continues in U.S. banking, with community banks being crushed under the regulatory burdens imposed over the past few years.  Their large national colleagues can afford the additional compliance costs, but small banks are increasingly folding, squeezed between those costs and very low rates.  There are now fewer FDIC-insured institutions in the U.S. than at any time since 1934.

Nearing a Deal on Eurozone Bank Rescue Mechanism

Ahead of next week’s summit of E.U. leaders, German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble hinted at Germany’s willingness to compromise in the establishment of a new mechanism to deal with failing banks.  No concrete details — but we’re encouraged by the prospect of German compromise.  The stability of Europe’s banking system has been our chief concern amidst the “green shoots” of Eurozone recovery.  If Germany is coming around on this issue, that’s positive for Europe.

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