With Euro QE underway, the common currency is falling hard and fast, racking up two days of nearly 1.5 percent declines in the space of a week. Given the price of U.S. stocks, we are cautious on the U.S. market. We remain bullish on the U.S. Dollar, and would be more bullish on European equities if we did not see the lurking danger of disorderly currency markets added to the now low-key threats of disruption from Greece and Ukraine. Price action in gold and U.S. Treasury bonds suggest that these assets are vulnerable to a correction. Of course, we are also watching the Fed — and the effect on market psychology of rate rise anticipations, particularly in the income-stock space. We think that with the Fed in uncharted waters, market reactions to rate increases will be unpredictable and volatile, and history may not be a strong guide. We are short the Euro and the Yen.
In last week’s Commentary, we also discuss:
- Apple Watch — dud or revolution?
- Will robots drive deflation or bring new opportunity?
- A dust-up comes to biotech: the arrival of biosimilars.