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THE GLOBAL BANKING CRISIS CONTINUES
STAGE 2: EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT UNDER ATTACK
Taken together, the Icelandic and Greek financial crises can be seen as the second stage of the larger global banking crisis. The first stage of the global banking crisis, which began in late 2007, was centered in the European and U.S. mortgage and mortgage derivative market. The second stage began with Iceland’s monetary and fiscal crisis in 2009 and continues with the current Greek crisis, and is centered in European sovereign debt.More... |
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Posted On :Wednesday, February, 17, 2010EUROPE HAS PROBLEMS Author's: Monty Guild & Tony Danaher
“He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.”
-Chinese Proverb
DEBT LEVELS IN G-7 COUNTRIES
We continue to be positive on Asia. One of the major reasons we currently favor Asia is the fact that public debt in the G-7 nations (U.S., Britain, France, Canada, Germany, Japan, and Italy) is expected to be over 119% of their combined GDP in 2014; a stunning figure.More... |
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IS CONGRESS REALLY CAPABLE OF MANAGING THE AFFAIRS AND LEGISLATION OF OUR FAST-PACED, HIGH-TECH, COMMUNICATION BASED SOCIETY?
The U.S. Congress is a slow moving, deliberative body. It is beholden to special interests groups, and is one of the root causes of many of the great defects in the current U.S. financial crisis.
Their track record is appalling. As our society progresses and the pace of life increases, Congress continues to fall further behind. By the time they get around to examining a problem, it has already run its course, and the changes they make after the fact often exacerbate the problems they set out to solve. Often, they are unable to make the changes necessary because they are owned by special interests and most of their constituents are focused on one or two personal issues-not on the best interest of the country as a whole.More... |
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Posted On :Friday, January, 15, 2010MORE FOR 2010 Author's: Monty Guild & Tony Danaher
“If a man empties his purse into his head, no man can take it away from him. An investment in knowledge always pays the best interest.”
- Benjamin Franklin
LOOKING AHEAD AT 2010
We believe that 2010 will hold many opportunities for the global investor as the continued improvement of business conditions will translate into higher equity and commodity markets. Expectations of rising inflation will drive capital into commodities and into fast growing countries, industries and companies.
As people become more confident of economic recovery, they become commensurately more frightened about inflation. As inflation fears escalate, desire to hold dollars dwindles.
We are adding to our positions in the following areas: producers of food, gold, and oil; exporters of high tech products and services; manufacturers of machinery used to produce commodities, such as mining, farming, and oil drilling equipment and services; and producers of machinery used to build manufacturing facilities; and machine tools.
The same macroeconomic conditions that create opportunity also create risk. As the markets begin to discount higher inflation and higher interest rates, some investment choices are better to avoid, such as long term bonds.More... |
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Theme #1 – Equities will outperform early in 2010
We believe that new money will flow into stocks for at least the first few months of 2010. Like most professional investors, we see stocks as the most attractive investment option for 2010.
Let us look at the alternatives to stocks for investors. In an environment where inflation is starting to resurge in many countries, bonds are in danger of declining in value as inflation pushes long term interest rates up in 2010. Due to overleveraging and excess inventory, real estate is doing poorly in Japan, U.S., and Europe. Collectibles are not in demand. Private equity has performed poorly. Globally, stocks and commodities are the investments of choice as we enter 2010.More... |
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