December 19, 2013

December 19, 2013

Complimentary Access To Our Year- End Conference Call

We hosted our year-end conference call on November 15, 2013 for our gold subscribers and investment management clients.  On the call we discussed the 2014 investment outlook for stocks, income investments, commodities, and other markets. 

For a limited time, we are making this exclusive conference call available to the public.  Simply click the link below to register and you will obtain access to our 2014 investment outlook.  Click the button below to register.

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Free Fiscal Stimulus For China? 

In November, Chinese leaders proposed an ambitious roadmap for wide-ranging reforms.  Among the proposals, one of those most likely to be put quickly into action is a blanket revision to China’s one-child policy that would make most couples eligible to have a second child. 

Media Have Overstated the Impact of These Reforms

We think media reporting on the one-child policy has been overstated.  It’s true that the policy has had a dramatic impact on Chinese demographics since its inception in the early 1980s.  But the government has been easing the policy in various ways for a long time 

We think media reporting on the one-child policy has been overstated.  It’s true that the policy has had a dramatic impact on Chinese demographics since its inception in the early 1980s.  But the government has been easing the policy in various ways for a long time.

To read our full analysis on fiscal stimulus for China by easing the one child policy, upgrade your subscription today.


One More (Big) Step Towards Mexican Energy Reform

In August, we wrote about the impending reform of Mexico’s energy sector.  At that time, we described radical plans by President Enrique Peña Nieto to spark economic growth by opening Mexico’s energy sector to outside investment.  And we said, as we often do about politically tough reforms, “It looks good — let’s see if he can pull it off.”

Last week, success came a big step closer.
Lawmakers from Peña Nieto’s party and its allies succeeded in passing a law that clears constitutional hurdles.  Without success in this vote, no reforms could have happened, since Mexico’s constitution has essentially barred real foreign participation in the oil and gas sector since 1938.

Now lawmakers can elaborate the specifics of the legal and regulatory framework, a process which is expected to take most of next year.  This process is going to be complex and difficult.  Most significantly, the Energy Ministry will have to decide on the contract model for participation by foreign majors: profit sharing, production sharing, or some form of concessions.  However, the possibilities opened by the legislation are wider than many observers had expected, with some oil-industry analysts noting that the contracts could really be globally competitive and attractive to the majors. 

Immediate Impact on Mexican Stock Market?

To read our full analysis on Mexican economy and  oil reform, upgrade your subscription today.  



Inquire About Our Investment Management Services Today

We hope you have found our weekly global market commentary useful in keeping you informed about the global macro landscape and navigating the complexity of the financial markets. 

Guild Investment Management has been managing the wealth of many affluent investors since 1971.

2014 is just around the corner and many changes are proposed in the United States.  Do you have a  seasoned investment advisor able to position your portfolio for any opportunities or to employ a defensive strategy for a market correction?  

To learn more about Guild Investment Management and the services we can offer you, please visit or contact us at (310) 826-8600 and schedule a complimentary portfolio analysis and review.

Private Infrastructure Investment

Larry Summers didn’t get nominated to run the Fed, but he certainly still has the President’s ear.  A piece of analysis we read recently pointed us towards an op ed article he wrote for the Financial Times in mid-October.  That piece suggested two lines of thought which we follow below.

Summers comments: “Growth-enhancing policies have more widely felt benefits than measures that raise taxes or cut spending.  Spurring growth is also an area where neither side of the political spectrum has a monopoly on good ideas.  We need more public infrastructure investment but we also need to reduce regulatory barriers that hold back private infrastructure.” 

This statement was made in the context of a kitchen-sink list of policies that he believes could be enacted to spur growth, while trying to show how policy priorities of both left and right are available as pro-growth options.  (And maintaining, sensibly, that spurring growth is the real key to resolving our fiscal troubles.)

The emphasis on infrastructure caught our eye.  Who are the beneficiaries of the slashing of red tape and bureaucratic overreach?  Upgrade now to find out.



Guild Basic Needs IndexTM

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In Last Week’s Global Market Commentary, We Also Discuss:

  • Five Years Later, Have We Learned Anything From the 2008 Housing Meltdown? 
  • Is it the Right Time to Invest in the Defense Industry? 
  • Is the World Trade Organization Relevant? 
  • Small Banks 
  • Nearing a Deal on Eurozone Bank Rescue Mechanism

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